Friday, May 26, 2006
Saturday looks interesting in South Dakota. Sunday looks interesting in western Nebraska. Monday looks like a cold front will ignite storms in eastern and southeastern Kansas while plunging southward.
Saturday and Sunday both have major cap issues, resulting from the EML and typical 2006 style moisture problems via mixing. Both setups are also on the unfavorable side of the jet although GFS punches a seperate speed max into the Nebraska panhandle that could mitigate the jet quad problems. Subsidence isn't something either of these setups need, that's for sure. However, with strong surface lows progged for both days (on 12z ETA & 12z GFS both) and impressive low level jets, I wouldn't be surprised by a rogue supercell or two, given current solutions.
GFS brings the cold front deeper on Tuesday with scattered low level wind fields. Each day following, though 180 hours, looks benign, with midlevel ridging rebuilding over the Rockies by Friday.
Frankly there isn't anything on ETA or GFS that inspires me to spend hundreds of dollars. Perhaps it would be wiser to save the money for some pattern shift later in June. 2006 continues to vie for a place among the worst seasons in contemporary chasing history. At the moment, there is no rational reason to think otherwise.
Sunday, May 21, 2006
Saturday, May 20, 2006
The benevolent NAM grants an honest to goodness chase day, and without a haze of questions and wishcasting (moisture will apparently always be a question, so take that as a given) on Tuesday May 23. This morning's 12z NAM forecasts a midlevel impulse to move through the northern plains and induce leeside cyclogenesis for a fine-looking supercell possibility anywhere in a rectangle defined by Junction City to Hays to Kearney to Lincoln. No reason to narrow that target yet though my suspicion for this relatively small impulse riding the top of a ridge is that it will move fast, so I'll discount the usual speed bias and give the central to northeastern portions of that target area some priority.
Friday, May 19, 2006
The question of when Chase Season 2006 will resume remains a vexing puzzle. It seemed as if mid-week was a lock, but the last few NCEP and EC products confound any long-range planning efforts. The bottom line is that I still don't know when my next chase will happen or where.
Maybe Tuesday in South Dakota? If that's the case, I have to get on the road early Monday morning. Right now I don't have the confidence to make that call.
Thursday, May 18, 2006
Whatever happens for the rest of this chase season, it doesn't look like supercells and tornadoes will come easily. My suspicion is that those willing to take the most risks (in terms of chasing marginal setups) and drive the most miles will fare best. I won't likely be among that group this year if the marginal days are all in the Dakotas.
Wednesday, May 17, 2006
More importantly, this is direct evidence that reporting via Skywarn can save people's lives. Mr. Clinton says below that he took shelter as a result of TV reports, and a local Sherman-Denison TV meteorologist told me on the phone last week that they were repeating our transmissions almost verbatim over the air. Here's the letter:
From: Taylor Clinton
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Sunday, May 14, 2006
One fun diversion is watching the Republican Party rip itself to shreds. What an amazing gift to the hapless, dopey Democrats when the Republicans decided to turn their insatiable hatred of all humans who don't look and sound like them against the very ethnic group that might have provided a foundation for American conservatism well into the 21st century: Mexican-Americans. Yes, many Hispanics have a religious-based social conservatism that made them natural allies for more moderate social elements of the right wing. Karl Rove saw Mexican-Americans as absolutely THE vital new constituency for Republicans in the next fifty years. Courting their political allegiance was the primary project of his vision for not only George W. Bush but the whole party. I'm sure that for Rove, these last six weeks have been a complete disaster. He would probably rather be indicted (which rumors from D.C. say will happen next week) than see his life's work to co-opt Latinos go down the shitter.
But I don't think the Mexicans are such huge GOP fans today, do you? Something about trying to make felons out of people who come here because Americans have jobs to offer probably turned them off. Haha. Historically, this is no surprise. All immigrant groups to America eventually learn who the Republicans really are, just like my grandparents did and all those who come to the factories and fields Americans are unwilling to work during boom times. Then, when the economy sours, the wild-eyed racism of the radical right comes flaming out of the friendly mask of the Republican Party. "Go home, Jose!" they scream until the money flows again. They did it to the Chinese who built the railroads, the Italians who made shoes, and now the Mexicans who do almost everything. Luckily for America, and all humankind, the American right wing will be out of power very soon.
Thursday, May 11, 2006
a new story in the Denton Chronicle/Dallas Morning News:
Collin County has a system to call residents with warnings, but it was not used. Marshal Deffibaugh said there was not enough time, and the tornadoes knocked out power and telephone lines.
Bullshit. Why doesn't one of these reporters check the warning times? This situation is extremely frustrating to me. I have contacted the Fort Worth NWS and Warning Coordination Meteorologist Gary Woodall. Gary does an excellent job and North Texas is lucky to have him. A more experienced chaser suggested to me that this would be the best way to approach the question. Let's hope a better, less psychotic answer is soon forthcoming from somebody in Colin County.
Wednesday, May 10, 2006
This Dallas Morning News story along with reports from the AP claim that Colin County officals state that they didn't have enough time to activate their telephone warning system. This NWS page shows the progression of warnings coming from their office along with direct citation from the Colin County Skywarn net, in which I was participating. The first tornado warning came at 10:08 PM, as you can see. Later warnings cited Westminster over and over, and the estimated time of the tornado's arrival. At least 45 minutes progressed between the first warning and the time Westminster was hit.
This is a fucking outrage. People in rural Colin County ought to march to their county office buildings and drag some of those fatass bureaucrats into the street and hang them upside down like Mussolini. They are NEVER going to have more time to activate that system than they had last night--ever. Not even in broad daylight.
If the system is broken, admit it. Otherwise, someone must answer for the failure to warn people whose tax money and elected officials were supposed to keep them safe.
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Today's forecast is extremely complicated, with a few targets possible, especially southern Oklahoma around the I-35 corridor and the central to eastern Texas panhandle. We're in Woodward, Oklahoma trying to make a decision.
Sunday, May 07, 2006
Tornadoes southwest and southeast of Patricia, Texas on May 5, 2006. Chasers Eric Nguyen and Amos Magliocco. ©2006 Amos Magliocco
Saturday, May 06, 2006
Our original target was Midland where we hoped the synoptic boundary and a dryline might combine to fire storms which could move along or south of the front. We shifted north when we realized the storm near Hobbs was on the intersection of our boundaries. We noticed the cu in our area were drying out and that our winds were becoming more southerly. We went to Andrews and then north to Seminole before closing on the large, well-structured supercell.
We chased the various iterations of this storm from east of Seminole in Gaines County to near Knott in Howard County. We tangled with extreme hail early in the day and as we followed behind the core were amazed by the fields full of baseballs. While we played in the hail trail, our storm became multicellular and elongated. We noticed a new meso to our southeast and a wall cloud emerging. We continued to try and flank the storm but its consistent south southeasterly motion and rapidly developing southern flank mesos effectively kept us in hail for hours. Poor road networks didn’t help. Still we never saw stones the size we encountered near Seminole. At last the storm split completely and the southern cell became a powerful supercell. Soon afterwards we observed the first tornado.
I’ll provide more detail later. Street Atlas 2006 crashed from a runtime error and I lost the GPS log file. As a result, our positioning will be estimated at best. I’ll attempt to post video grabs on my blog tomorrow or the next day.
Thursday, May 04, 2006
Tomorrow we should enjoy stronger midlevel flow overspreading the whole region and that will improve things a lot. I wrapped up classes yesterday and don't mind the idea of running errands or even relaxing a little today. But tomorrow I want to be on the road if at all possible. We're on the clock now.
Wednesday, May 03, 2006
Later I caught the storm near Quanah and made the mistake of staying on State Road 287, where the second meso developed near the road. The first meso, which raced to the northeastern quad of the storm, produced a brief cone tornado that Mickey Ptak and Chad Lawson caught. Jay McCoy also witnessed this tube. Congrats to those guys. I should have been more aggressive with my positioning, but the storm gusted out so powerfully earlier and was producing such copious, debris-laden outflow that I assumed its tornado chances were nil. Never assume anything in May, I guess.
As for the next several days, I don't think model guidance is ever less useful than in regimes like the current one in the southern plains, esp TX and OK. A stationary front, modest flow with small impulses, potential waves from the Mexican data void, and outflow boundaries galore intersecting with drylines are like the perfect storm of everything models do badly.
That being said, the NAM this morning wants to make wine from water (or Coke from Pepsi for you secular types) and give us not one, but two more days of weird boundary chasing, on Thursday AND Friday in right about the same areas as yesterday and today. Wow. Difference on this run mainly in the strength of flow aloft: NAM increases 500mb winds to AOA 40 knots and THEN brings through a wave here and there for added dynamics. If that will verify, a fun time should be had by all. Where and how are the sort of details we won't know until the morning of Day 1.
Monday, May 01, 2006
May 2006 opens with a zonal, northwesterly flow pattern and models suggest a run of marginal setups this week, exactly the sort of days that one could safely ignore in March or April. But now it's May, and if a chaser can cook up some instability near a boundary with decent flow aloft, anything is possible. Challenges include a surface high in the southeastern US and backdoor cold fronts sweeping over the plains from an entrenched east coast trough, a regime that could make supercells and tornadoes scarce for the first dozen days or so.
My chasing is limited for the next six days as the semester winds down. After that, I'll be ready for the several weeks of open range chasing that is one of my teaching job's biggest perks.